Sorry in advance for the relatively substance-less diary, but I came across something interesting in my daily scan for general election polls. It is a poll from the Mason-Dixon polling agency asking Florida Democrats what they think should be done with the results of the state's unsanctioned January primary:
The biggest chunk of the 400 voters surveyed by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research -- 28 percent -- said Florida should hold another vote so the candidates could campaign in the state and earn delegates. Such a vote would potentially end the stalemate over the nomination, as neither candidate is currently in reach of the 2,025 delegates needed to close the deal.
But most party leaders and elected officials in Florida have ruled out a do-over, arguing that it would disenfranchise the more than 1.7 million Democrats who went to the polls on Jan. 29.
The survey found that 24 percent said the national party should allow Clinton's win in Florida to count toward delegates. Another 15 percent said Florida Democrats knowingly broke national party rules and should accept the penalty, while 13 percent said Florida should send an equal number of Clinton and Obama delegates to the convention so they can participate but not influence the outcome.
So to summarize:
28 percent of Florida Dems want a revote
24 percent want delegates seated based on the January primary
15 percent think no delegates should be seated
13 percent want an equal number of Obama and Clinton delegates seated
Whilst it would be hard to argue for a revote on this basis -- that option is preferred by the plurality of Florida Democrats, but far short of a majority -- this poll surely cannot add to the arguments for legitimizing the results of the January primary.
Mason-Dixon also surveyed general election matchups, which unfortunately do not contain great news for either candidate:
McCain wins 47 to 37 percentage points over Barack Obama, and 49 to 40 over Hillary Clinton in a potential general election matchup. McCain got at least half of the independent vote in both contests.
Although Obama performs nominaly worse against McCain (-10 versus -9 for Clinton), these results are actually worse news for Clinton, because Florida is close to being a must win for her while Obama can probably get away with ignoring it.
There are a couple of other new general election polls that have come out since my last update:
State Agency Date Posted Obama Clinton
TN MTSU 2/27/2008 -14 -7
AZ ASU 2/26/2008 -11 -24
OH Ohio 2/27/2008 +1 -4
FL M/D 2/28/2008 -10 -9
The Tennessee poll replaces an earlier, 2007 poll by the same agency. The others are fresh. They tend to confirm that Obama performs worse than Clinton in states with large culturally conservative / Southern Baptist populations (like Tennessee) but better than her outside of those regions (like in Arizona, though he'd need a miracle to win there). Clinton has also moved a tick below 50% in Ohio in my modified polling averages.
Obama's average electoral vote share (289) and win percentage (64.2%) are unchanged from the last update. His popular vote share ticked down by 0.2%. Clinton has lost 6 electoral votes (233 versus 239), 2.6% off her win percentage (35.0% versus 37.6%) and 0.4% in her popular vote share.